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U.S. stocks edged up Monday as investors digested mixed messages on the trade war, following some of the most chaotic and turbulent weeks in recent market memory.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 312 points, or 0.8%, while the S&P 500 added 42 points, also climbing 0.8% by market close. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was up 107 points, or 0.6%. Gold, meanwhile, slipped 0.8%, suggesting a slight pullback from last week’s mad dash into safe-haven assets. Apple (AAPL+3.79%) stock climbed, helping lead market indexes higher.
A surprise tariff announcement late Friday triggered the tech-led bounce on Monday. The electronics exemption, issued by U.S. Customs and Border Protection, seemed to shield smartphones, laptops, and other consumer electronics from Trump administration tariffs on Chinese goods — offering relief for companies that rely heavily on Chinese manufacturing, such as Apple, Nvidia (NVDA+0.54%), and Microsoft (MSFT+0.24%)
But the reprieve may be short-lived. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that the products are still included under a round of semiconductor-related tariffs “coming in probably a month or two.”
And President Donald Trump later rejected the idea that there had been any exemption at all, saying that the goods are still subject to existing 20% fentanyl-linked tariffs and that they had merely shifted tariff categories. He said no product was actually exempt, calling the change a simple reclassification.
“NOBODY is getting ‘off the hook,’” Trump said Sunday on his social media site Truth Social.
Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts criticized the shifting policies as “chaos and corruption,” warning that such unpredictability is eroding investor confidence.
Forecasts cut amidst extreme fear
Perhaps unsurprisingly, the Fear & Greed Index is still planted in “extreme fear” territory, reflecting a lack of bullish sentiment amid chaotic policy announcements — to say nothing of chaotic policy determination. The S&P 500’s recent 5% intraday swings suggest volatility that is more structural than seasonal.
Analysts at both Morgan Stanley (MS+1.48%) and Citigroup (C+3.39%) have cut their year-end forecasts for U.S. stocks, pointing to rising risks from such unpredictable policy moves and continuing geopolitical tensions.
Heading into a packed week of corporate earnings in which major banks, healthcare companies, and consumer-facing platforms such as Netflix (NFLX+2.09%) will report results, each release could either steady or rattle investor nerves.
Apple bites back
Apple stock jumped 2.2% Monday, lifted by hopes the company will be temporarily exempt from new electronics tariffs. President Trump said Monday afternoon that he was “flexible” when it came to a temporary exemption for Apple.
Separately, Apple reclaimed the top spot in global smartphone shipments for the first quarter of 2025, thanks to strong demand for the iPhone 16e in markets such as Japan and India. Even alongside valid fears of disruptions to Apple’s supply chain, the company’s product suite and global brand power remain unmatched.
Goldman Sachs opens the earnings floodgates
Goldman Sachs (GS+2.42%) reported a robust 15% increase in first-quarter profit, reaching $4.74 billion, or $14.12 per share, driven by strong trading performance amid market volatility. Goldman stock rose 1.9% Monday.
But it’s not just about one earnings beat. Goldman is a bellwether for how corporate America is handling volatility, providing a real-time pulse check on capital flows and investor sentiment in a year that’s been anything but normal. On Monday, it’s a reminder that Wall Street firms may make money whether times are good or bad.
