House Republicans shot themselves in the foot by voting for a “budget blueprint” that will cut $880 billion from Medicaid over the next 10 years, paving the way for yet another tax cut for Elon Musk and his billionaire pals.
It was a vote so transparently toxic that “moderate” Republicans justified their vote by claiming it’s just a “starting point,” not an actual budget cut. Meanwhile, rabid far-right Republicans demanded even deeper cuts to Medicaid.
You think voters are going to know the difference between a “budget blueprint” and a final bill when Democrats run ads telling voters that their representatives voted to cut Medicaid?
Regardless, Republicans won’t be able to achieve their tax cuts without cutting Medicaid, as was confirmed Wednesday by the Congressional Budget Office.
So are we supposed to believe that “moderate” Republicans will ultimately vote against Medicaid cuts in a final bill, with President Donald Trump and MAGA breathing down their necks?
They’ve shown zero ability to resist far-right pressure. In fact, they live in terror of physical threats from the unhinged MAGA cult, and they’re already getting attacked by Democrats for voting to gut Medicaid. So what do they have to lose in the end?
Well, reelection, for one.
A new poll from KFF Health News confirms just how idiotic and politically dangerous the GOP’s Medicaid cuts are.
Just 5% of Democrats and 14% of independents want Medicaid funding decreased. And among Republicans, just 33% want Medicaid decreased, 24% want it to be increased, and 43% are happy with the way it is now.
But here’s the kicker: Among rural voters, just 23% want Medicaid funding decreased, and among rural Republicans, that number is just 35%. And it’s no surprise, since Medicaid is disproportionately a rural program.
Among rural voters, 75% say Medicaid is “very important” to their communities, and 23% say it’s “somewhat important.” And among rural Republicans, 95% say Medicaid is either “very” or “somewhat important.” Holy moly!
None of this should be particularly surprising, given how beneficial to Republicans Medicaid has proven to be.
In 2023, a Georgetown University report found that six states—New Mexico, Louisiana, Arizona, Florida, South Carolina, and Arkansas—had at least half of children living in rural areas and small towns covered by Medicaid. Five of these are red states—four solid red.
And the 10 states with the most children on Medicaid in small towns and rural areas were all deep red: Texas, North Carolina, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Ohio, Arkansas, and Indiana.
“Non-elderly adults and children in small towns and rural areas are more likely than those living in metro areas to rely on Medicaid/CHIP for their health insurance. As a consequence, reductions in federal Medicaid funding being contemplated in Congress are more likely to cause greater harm to rural areas and small towns than metro areas,” the report said.
And it is within that context that Republicans voted to gut the program.
As I noted earlier this week, there was a historical reversal in voting habits in the 2024 election. Trump won voters making less than $50,000, while Kamala Harris won those making over $50,000, signaling that Democrats have become the party of the educated while Republicans are the party of the poor.
But as effective as their culture war has been in moving low-income demographics in their direction, GOP policies aren’t following suit.
Trump is fixated on inflation-fueling trade wars and mass deportations, crypto bros, vulgar Gaza fantasies, gutting the federal workforce and programs that directly help people, and—of course—tax cuts for billionaires.
Republicans realigned the working class and made them theirs, but now they’re giving them nothing in return.
Democrats’ future electoral prospects depend on keeping their current coalition while clawing back some of the working class. Yes, most are deep in the cult and aren’t going anywhere. But remember, flip just 10% of Trump voters—or activate 10% of non-voters—and it’s a completely different election.
That’s the challenge. Now we need to make it happen.
