Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up three of the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about. You’ll also find data-based updates on past Daily Kos reporting, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics.
Trump flails on major issues
President Donald Trump’s job-approval numbers are sliding—and new data shows it could be because Americans aren’t big fans of his agenda.
A new poll from Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that Trump doesn’t have a net approval rating in any of the eight policy areas surveyed. No, not even immigration.
He may have earned the highest marks on immigration, but only 49% of Americans approve of how he’s handling it, compared with 50% who disapprove. On other issues, however, Trump fared much worse, including his handling of the economy. Only 40% approve of how he is handling it, while 58% disapprove.
His worst marks came on his handling of trade negotiations with other nations: 38% approve, 60% disapprove. And this survey was conducted before he tanked the global stock markets with his idiotic tariffs.
These numbers are part of a broader trend. Other new polls show Americans aren’t happy with Trump, particularly on the economy.
A Gallup poll released Thursday found that the economy topped Americans’ list of concerns, with 87% worrying about it at least a fair amount. Right behind it are inflation (85%) and the availability and affordability of health care (82%). Worse for Trump, the share of Americans who worry “a great deal” about all three have jumped since last year.
Trump’s chaotic tariffs appear to be driving worries about the economy, likely because the tariffs are expected to raise consumer prices.
Following Trump’s bizarre “Liberation Day” press conference on Wednesday, YouGov finds that 51% of Americans disapprove of “recent tariffs announced by the U.S. government, including a minimum tariff of 10% on all imports to the U.S. from other countries.” Just 34% approve.
However, 67% of Republicans approve of Trump’s tariffs. And Gallup’s data finds that GOP voters express less worry than Democrats about the economy. It’s a stark reminder that even as the tariffs threaten to kick the country into a recession, Republicans are sticking by their man. It’s a loyalty that’s less about sound policy and more about tribalism, no matter the cost.
Numbers on the CEO murder
Attorney General Pam Bondi announced Tuesday that the Justice Department will seek the death penalty for Luigi Mangione, the man accused of murdering UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson in December. While the public widely condemned the killing, Mangione has garnered a cult following since his arrest, driven by contempt for the U.S. health care industry.
However, public sentiment around Thompson’s murder is more complex than simple outrage. Fresh YouGov data finds that only 56% of Americans disapprove of the killing, which is slightly lower than the 60% who disapproved in December, shortly after the crime.
YouGov, known for its rigorous polling, framed the question carefully, allowing respondents to express ambivalence or subtle approval without outright endorsing the murder. When asked whether they “approve or disapprove” of Thompson’s killing, respondents could choose from the following options: approve (8%), neither approve nor disapprove (12%), disapprove (56%), not sure (18%), or prefer not to say (7%).
Interpreting these numbers is tricky. Respondents who selected “prefer not to say” or “not sure” may, in fact, sympathize with Mangione but are unwilling to admit it to a pollster—perhaps out of discomfort with openly approving of a violent crime. (In survey research, this is known “social-desirability bias.”)
But there’s also a deeper anti-corporate sentiment at play. Mangione’s case is intertwined with broader frustrations over health insurance in the U.S. YouGov’s March poll finds that only 30% of Americans have a favorable view of the health insurance industry, while a staggering 62% hold an unfavorable opinion. Majorities of Democrats (64%), independents (63%), and Republicans (57%) hold an unfavorable view.
Mangione has also attracted a cult following, particularly among young voters and women—a phenomenon primarily arising from his anti-corporate cause, young age (26), and physical appearance. Strikingly, in YouGov’s poll, 18% of Americans view Mangione favorably—the same share who views Thompson favorably. The key difference lies in their unfavorability ratings: 48% hold an unfavorable opinion of Mangione, compared with just 36% for Thompson.
Whether fueled by populist rage, personal sympathies, or online fandom, public reaction to the case remains profoundly divided—and unlikely to quiet down anytime soon.
All the news that’s fit to be doom-scrolled
Americans are consuming more news amid the destructive kickoff to Trump’s second term, though Democrats and Republicans are tuning in for very different reasons.
Overall, 71% of Americans have been following news about the Trump administration’s actions—up 5 percentage points from 2021, during President Joe Biden’s tenure—according to the Pew Research Center.
Seeing more people engaged with the news is certainly encouraging to us at Daily Kos. But what’s particularly striking is why Americans are paying closer attention.
The biggest driver seems to be fear.
Sixty-six percent of those following the news say a major reason for them doing so is that they’re “concerned” for what Trump might do next, while another 62% are following the news because Trump’s actions are “relevant” to their lives. One thing is clear: Few are tuning in because they like what Trump’s doing. Just 36% of those following the news say a major reason is because they “like” what his administration is doing.
Sixty-two percent of both Republicans and Democrats are following the news because his decisions are “relevant” to their lives. But when it comes to fear, the partisan divide is clear: 88% of Democrats are watching out of “concern,” compared with 45% of Republicans.
That 45% is still significant, though. It suggests that even within the GOP, Trump’s decisions aren’t sitting well with nearly half of his base. We’ve seen some of that concern play out at Republican congressional town halls, where angry constituents are showing up to grill their representatives.
Of course, Republicans are still more likely than Democrats to say they approve of Trump’s actions, but the numbers aren’t exactly strong. Among those following the news, 64% of Republicans say a major reason why is because they “like” what Trump’s administration is doing. Just 8% of news-attuned Democrats say the same.
In other words, fear and uncertainty—not admiration—are driving America’s political attention right now.
Any updates?
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Trump is “not joking” about possibly running for an unconstitutional third term, insisting that “a lot of people would like” for him to remain in power—but polling suggests otherwise. A new YouGov poll finds that 69% of Americans oppose allowing Trump to serve for a third term—a 6-point increase since February. Even among Republicans, the enthusiasm just isn’t there. The latest survey finds Republicans split on the issue: 43% in favor of allowing it, 42% not in favor.
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The infamous “Signalgate” scandal hasn’t impacted Trump’s support—at least not yet. A new Morning Consult poll shows that 52% of voters approve of his handling of national security, a 1-point increase from before The Atlantic’s bombshell report. This is despite Trump’s national security adviser using an unsecured messaging app to discuss everything from attack plans in Yemen to peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.
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Musk’s shady attempt to buy a state Supreme Court election in Wisconsin backfired spectacularly. Part of his scheme involved paying people $100 to sign a petition against “activist judges.” And as it turns out, 65% of Americans believe paying people to sign a political petition should be illegal, according to YouGov.
Vibe check
Despite some wins this week—most notably, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker’s marathon floor speech—the Democratic Party is still paying the price for yielding to Trump. According to data from Civiqs on Friday, 60% of registered voters have an unfavorable view of the party, while just 32% view it favorably—a drop of 2 points on net since early March.
Among Democratic voters, support is slipping too: 70% have a favorable view of their party, but that’s a steep 12-point decline from Election Day 2024. Meanwhile, 15% of Democrats now say they view their own party unfavorably, and another 15% aren’t sure how they view it.
The exact root of this increased negativity isn’t clear from Civiqs’ data, but Democrats now have a chance to potentially turn things around—especially with the GOP in total disarray. Let’s hope they seize it.
