Fantasy Baseball Today: One big question for every MLB team as Opening Day looms

Arizona Diamondbacks – Will the real Corbin Carroll please stand up? 

Is he the guy who looked like a true five-category superstar as a rookie, when he hit .285 with 25 homers and 54 steals? Or were last year’s struggles a harbinger of things to come? He was still probably worth a late first-round pick with his all-around contributions last season, but a .231 average is hard to stomach from that high of a pick even if he was pretty great at everything else. I’m optimistic, but not totally convinced – his .251 expected batting average for his career suggests that batting average could always be a struggle for Carroll. 

Atlanta Braves – How long does it take for Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña to make an impact?

Strider is, by all accounts, ahead of Acuña, having actually pitched in a couple of spring games, where his velocity was down a couple mph but he still got 10 strikeouts in just four innings of work. Strider is likely on a mid-April timetable, but I’m assuming he’ll be at least somewhat limited to start – which means he may not really be a viable starter for Fantasy until May. The upside is high, but I’m less convinced than most that he’s going to be a huge difference maker for Fantasy.

And Acuña is an even bigger question mark. We basically heard nothing about his progress this spring as he works his way back from his second torn ACL. We’re expecting a May return from Acuña, though whether it’ll be in the beginning of the month or more toward the middle remains very much unclear – one thing we do know is that Acuña isn’t planning to run quite as much this time. If he hits like he did in 2023, he can still be an elite Fantasy option with 30 steals, but he struggled as a hitter in the seasons surrounding that one, so we really don’t know what to expect there. 

Baltimore Orioles – Is there enough pitching here?

To win 90 games and make the playoffs again? Sure, probably. To make a deep playoff run? No, I’m sorry, a team with Charlie Morton and Dean Kremer currently penciled in as their No. 2 and 3 starter does not have enough pitching. Maybe Grayson Rodriguez comes back relatively soon and takes the leap toward ace-dom, but that’s no sure thing coming off an elbow injury – it’s probably more likely he suffers a setback and has a totally lost season, if we’re being honest. The Orioles needed another front-line starter before Rodriguez’s injury if they wanted to be real World Series contenders. 

Boston Red Sox – How long until the other prospects join Kristian Campbell?

Campbell made the Opening Day roster despite pretty underwhelming production this spring, so clearly, they weren’t necessarily looking for him to run away with the job – he did enough for them to give it to him. That wasn’t the case for Roman Anthony or Marcelo Mayer, both of whom are more obviously blocked by incumbents on the MLB roster. Mayer could be a Trevor Story injury away from getting the call, but the path for Anthony is a little tougher to figure out given the Red Sox’s plethora of “just good enough” options in the outfield. Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela probably shouldn’t be road blocks for a prospect of Anthony’s caliber, but it’s not like having either in the lineup is a five-alarm fire. Which means there’s at least a chance Anthony is the last of the team’s big three to get the call. 

Chicago White Sox – Is there any reason to be optimistic here? 

Well, there’s Kyle Teel and Edgar Quero, two of the top catching prospects in baseball … who will be playing alongside one another at Triple-A, are on similar timetables, and could cannibalize each other’s playing time when they inevitably get called up. 

Okay, sure, but there’s Luis Robert .. who looked totally disinterested last season en route to the worst season of his career when he wasn’t on the IL. Let’s hope he’s nice and motivated to force a trade with his play this time around.

There is some upside in the rotation, with Sean Burke and Shane Smith looking like potential contributors and the likes of Noah Schultz, Nick Nastrini, Jake Eder, and, later on, Hagen Smith and Grant Taylor representing varying levels of upside. It’s not ideal that they’ll be backed by arguably the worst team in baseball whenever they make their debuts, but hey, you asked if there was any reason to be optimistic here! 

Chicago Cubs – How long of a leash does Matt Shaw get? 

It really doesn’t seem like the Cubs have any good contingency plans if Shaw flops, unless they think Justin Turner can be an everyday player in his 40s. So I suspect they’re going to give him a nice long leash with which to work through whatever growing pains might be there. That’s what we want to hear for a top prospect making their debut. 

Cincinnati Reds – Can the pitching be good enough? 

For the second season in a row, the playing time questions have been answered by injuries, though Spencer Steer’s eventual return from a shoulder injury does represent risk for the likes of Gavin Lux, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Jeimer Candelario.

But the bigger question here is whether the likes of Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo can live up to their considerable potential as starters and, most importantly, stay on the mound. With Rhett Lowder, Chase Petty, and Chase Burns working their way through the minor-league system, this rotation could be the envy of the entire league in short order. Or, Greene and Lodolo could continue to baffle Fantasy players more than they do hitters, leaving the Reds to hope the next generation can take the rotation to the next level. 

Cleveland Guardians – Can Gavin Williams make the leap? 

There were flashes of it this spring, as he brought back his slider, added some velo and ride to his fastball, and racked up 21 strikeouts in 12.1 innings of work. Williams probably has the most upside of any pitcher in this staff, but an elbow injury wrecked his 2023 season before he really got going. The Guardians always find some way to beat expectations, and Williams making an ace leap would go a long way in 2024. 

Colorado Rockies – Will they ever put their best players on the field at the same time?

The Rockies traded Nolan Jones for some reason right before the season, only to send Zac Veen down to Triple-A after a thrilling spring run. Veen has played just 21 games above Double-A, so it’s hard to blame them too much … except that it’s in keeping with a consistent theme over the past few years. We’ll see Veen at some point, and likely Adael Amador and Chase Dollander before long, too. But I wish I could be confident they’ll actually do the right thing and turn the keys over to the kids rather than the castoffs and never-were’s populating most of the roster right now. 

Detroit Tigers – Can Jackson Jobe find the whiffs? 

They weren’t there in the minors last season, at least not to the level we expect from a prospect of Jobe’s talent. And they certainly weren’t there this spring, as he struck out just 17.4% of batters faced. Jobe is a tinkerer, and spring is a time for tinkering, so this could just be about trying to find the right combination of pitches – he started working in a sweeper, sinker, and curveball at times this spring – rather than worrying about the results. But I’d feel a lot more confident about Jobe’s chances of breaking out if there were more concrete evidence here about his ability to miss bats. 

Houston Astros – Can the Jose Altuve-in-LF experiment really work? 

In retrospect, it’s kind of a curious move – Altuve’s defense has gotten pretty bad at second base, but there’s no guarantee he’ll be any better at a position he’s never played. And it’s not like they moved him to accommodate anyone – top prospect Cam Smith is also making the move to the outfield this spring, with some combination of Mauricio Dubon and Brendan Rodgers likely to man second base. I would get it if Alex Bregman had returned, or they were moving Isaac Paredes to second to accommodate Smith at his natural position. The worry here is that Altuve’s performance at the plate suffers along with his defense – and it’s a small worry, to be clear. 

Kansas City Royals – Is there enough pitching here? 

There are questions about the offense outside of the top four hitters, too, but the problem here is really that they’ve built a pretty boring rotation. A “safe” rotation. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha may not be as good as they were last season, but they should be steady; Michael Lorenzen is a fine No. 5 starter, etc. But is there enough impact here? If Cole Ragans stays healthy, there could be, but if anything happens to him, it’s pretty easy to see the Royals taking a big step back. Kris Bubic might be their best hope to exceed expectations again. 

Los Angeles Angels – Can Mike Trout actually stay healthy? 

I don’t know, and you don’t either. The hope is a move to right field will help take a bit of pressure off Trout, as he won’t have to cover as much ground in the outfield. Maybe it’ll help. To the people who say they know that Trout can’t stay healthy, I’ll just offer up this comp: Ken Griffey played just 51% of his team’s games in his age 31-34 seasons before playing 128, 144, and 143 in three of four seasons from age 35 through 38. It’s not impossible! 

Los Angeles Dodgers – Can Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman be themselves? 

Freeman is going to get some extra time off this season as the Dodgers try to manage him coming off ankle surgery, with the team already acknowledging he’ll likely take day games after night games off. The ankle will require treatment for at least half the season, and he missed the first two games in Tokyo due to a flare-up from a rib injury last season. 

And he’s the healthier of the two right now!

Betts has lost 20-plus pounds in the past few weeks while recovering from a stomach illness, and as of Sunday of this week, still hasn’t been able to keep down any solid foods. This might end up being a non-factor as the season goes on, but it’s also possible Betts just isn’t at full strength for a long time and is limited for weeks or months. It’s not enough to back off drafting Betts entirely, but moving him to the second half of the second round in remaining drafts isn’t the worst idea. 

Miami Marlins – Is there any offensive upside here? 

Yes! And I’m not just saying this because I’m a Marlins fan – if it helps protect my credibility, I’m lower on Xavier Edwards than most! This is going to be a pretty bad lineup, but there are at least some interesting players here – Griffin Conine, Kyle Stowers, Matt Mervis, and Jonah Bride have all put up big power numbers in the minors, for example. And then there’s names like Agustin Ramirez and Deyvison De Los Santos lurking at Triple-A, waiting to be called up when the time is right – probably sometime after the Marlins gain an extra year of club control in the early summer. Nobody here should be drafted with the expectation that they’ll make a big impact, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the Marlins had at least a few viable starting options by the summer. 

Milwaukee Brewers – Does Brandon Woodruff have anything left in the tank? 

You could also ask about Christian Yelich coming off back surgery, but a .344/.382/.719 line in 11 spring games answered that about as forcefully as an exhibition line could. So we’ll turn to Woodruff, who is coming back from shoulder surgery and made just one appearance in an official game this spring. The Brewers have a decent rotation, but they’re sorely lacking the kind of difference maker Woodruff used to be. If he can be that kind of pitcher again, even for 120 innings, it would be huge – but I’m not holding my breath. 

Minnesota Twins – How long does this current rotation last? 

The Twins sent down two of their buzziest pitchers this spring in David Festa and Zebby Matthews, opting for Simeon Woods Richardson and Chris Paddack to round out their rotation. Those pitchers have some intrigue – Paddack especially impressed in his final spring start – but I think most Fantasy players would rather see Festa and especially Matthews get a look before long. Given the attrition rate for pitchers, there’s a decent chance an opportunity opens up before long, so keep a close eye on this situation over the first month or so. 

New York Yankees – How much does Paul Goldschmidt have left in the tank? 

Given the toll injuries have already taken this spring, the Yankees have a surprisingly slim margin for error already. If Goldschmidt, their likely leadoff hitter against lefties and cleanup hitter against righties, can’t turn around his late-30s slide, this offense could be in trouble even with Aaron Judge anchoring it. There’s some breakout potential here with Ben Rice, Austin Wells, and Jazz Chisholm, but even a repeat of 2024 from Goldschmidt would leave the Yankees in pretty rough shape at first base. 

New York Mets – Can Clay Holmes really anchor a rotation? 

I’m happy with the growth Holmes made this spring, adding a changeup, cutter, and four-seamer to expand his arsenal amid a move from the bullpen to the rotation. But the Mets are asking an awful lot from their new Opening Day starter, and while I think the skills will play well enough in the rotation, both the upside and stability of the skill set remain in question. Given how long it’s been since Holmes started, it might not be a bad idea to consider selling high if he gets off to a strong start. 

Oakland Athletics – How does the new ballpark play? 

We have some evidence to suggest that Sutter Health Park in Sacramento will play as a pretty hitter-friendly environment, at least relative to their old home in Oakland. But there are questions beyond the dimensions at play here – it’s a minor-league park with minor-league amenities, and we don’t know how the new lights and batters’ eye will play, among other factors. Like this: It gets awfully hot in Sacramento in the summer, reaching a max temperature of 111 degrees with an average max of 101 degrees last July. That’s going to take its toll, though the exact impact on players is unknowable. This is one of the big, unanswerable questions of the season. 

Philadelphia Phillies – Can Cristopher Sanchez live up to the hype? 

Sanchez went from undervalued at the beginning of the spring to arguably overvalued thanks to a velocity jump that led to a 1.62 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 16.2 innings this spring. Better velocity usually means better stuff, and if Sanchez can consistently be a strikeout pitcher while maintaining the excellent command and groundball rates he has shown in the previous two seasons, he could further strengthen what is already a terrific rotation. And is Jesus Luzardo pitches like his pre-2024 self … well, there’s a lot to get excited about in Philly right now. 

Pittsburgh Pirates – How long until Paul Skenes gets some help? 

The Pirates basically punted on free agency, making no multi-year commitments, which seems pretty unforgivable when you have an all-world ace like Skenes who is currently healthy. You can’t count on guys who throw 100 mph consistently to stay healthy, so this should be the window. There’s help coming in the form of top prospects like Bubba Chandler, Braxton Ashcraft, and Thomas Harrington, but I just can’t see the wisdom in starting that trio off at Triple-A. Hopefully we see them before the summer. 

San Diego Padres – Can Robert Suarez hold onto his job? 

For someone who relies as much as Suarez does on his fastball, a velocity dip is always going to be concerning. That it happened this spring after a second-half swoon has helped push Suarez’s price way down in drafts – his ADP is down to 135.5 over the past week of NFBC drafts. The Padres have multiple viable alternatives in Jason Adam and Jeremiah Estrada, but we have no reason to think Suarez won’t get the first save when the season starts. But there seems to be a lot of real risk here that he just won’t be as effective as he was during his breakout 2024 season. 

San Francisco Giants – Can Robbie Ray live up to the hype? 

A strong spring served as a reminder of how good Ray can be when he’s right, and it pushed his ADP up to 125.3 over the past week – back in February, he was sitting at 172.8. I generally don’t think spring performance should change how a player is valued, so in Ray’s case, I think it’s more a market correction – everyone was just way, way too low on him before he started pitching this spring. He racked up big swing-and-miss numbers in his seven starts back from Tommy John surgery last season, and he could be a top-10 pitcher again if he stays healthy. 

Seattle Mariners – Is there enough offense here? 

There certainly wasn’t last season, as the Mariners missed the playoffs despite unusual health and success from their starting five. They’ve already lost George Kirby for the start of the season, so you can’t count on that kind of luck from the starting pitchers again. Which means they’re going to need a lot more from the offense in 2025. I’m bullish on the top of the lineup, but they’ll need someone like Jorge Polanco or Mitch Garver to turn back the clocks and really make an impact to have much of a chance to be even an average offense. Two names to keep an eye on if there’s a hole in the infield after the first couple of months are Cole Young and Colt Emerson, who will likely start the season at Triple-A and Double-A respectively and could move quickly if they rake down on the farm. 

St. Louis Cardinals – How long does Nolan Arenado stick around? 

The Cardinals roster would make so much more sense with Arenado out of the picture. They’re trying to reset on the fly, and getting Arenado out of the picture would give them somewhere for Nolan Gorman to play everyday as they try to figure out whether he can be part of the next competitive core for them. But when Arenado turned down a trade to the Astros, they were pretty much stuck with the veteran. I think there’s room for an Arenado bounceback – his swing speed is up this spring – but the Cardinals have to be hoping it happens early so they can try to move him again. Until that happens, there could be timeshares at multiple spots on the diamond, limiting the Fantasy utility of Gorman, Brendan Donovan, Alec Burleson, and more. 

Tampa Bay Rays – How does the new ballpark play? 

The Rays are playing at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, which has the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium, with the added benefit (for hitters) of being outside in the Florida heat. That’s already bad news for Rays pitchers, but then you have a couple of other factors to consider. First, there’s the fact that playing outdoors in Florida means tons of rain delay risk, which could derail starts if the rain starts up after first pitch. And then there’s the fact that the Rays old home, Tropicana Field, elevated pitcher stuff more than any other park in baseball – meaning pitchers played up there more than you would expect at any other park. The Rays have plenty of talent on the pitching side of things, and I don’t want to fade them entirely – I even drafted Ryan Pepiot and Shane Baz in a few spots this spring – but they’ve got a lot working against them. 

Texas Rangers – Can the pitching staff live up to the hype? 

There’s Jacob deGrom, who we expect to be one of the best pitchers in baseball when he’s healthy, even though his velocity is down 1-2 mph this spring. Then there’s Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter, a couple of extremely interested, hard-throwing, but extremely flawed pitchers who basically have the month of April with which to make their case to stick in the rotation in the long run. By the end of April, we hope Cody Bradford (elbow) will be healthy enough to return, with Jon Gray (wrist) hopefully ready sometime in May. Leiter and Rocker both have big strikeout upside, but they’ll also both be on relatively short leashes, so if they don’t look good after a couple of starts, it should be fairly easy to drop them. But I want to give them at least that chance before I give up, because the payoff could be huge. 

Toronto Blue Jays – Can they convince Vladimir Guerrero to stick around? 

I don’t really expect Guerrero’s play to be impacted by his impending free agency, though I’ll grant that it’s possible. But the more pressing question here is whether they can get off to a good enough start to avoid the inevitable trade questions around Guerrero (and Bo Bichette, who is also a free agent after the season). If the Jays are in contention by the summer, they figure to keep the band together and try to make one last run at convincing Guerrero to stay. But if they’re floundering, Guerrero will be one of the most obvious trade candidates in the league, and this lineup could look a lot worse very quickly. 

Washington Nationals – Do Dylan Crews and James Wood take that next step? 

They’re certainly being drafted that way, with Wood’s ADP sitting at 48.5 over the past week while Crews’ is at 113.7. Neither was really worth that price in their partial seasons last season, but the talent is obvious – Wood is an excellent athlete who hits the ball incredibly hard, while Crews might be an even better athlete and has a terrific approach at the plate. There is superstar potential here with both, and while I prefer the cheaper Crews in Fantasy, if both live up to expectations, the Nationals could find themselves fighting for a playoff spot this season.